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Charting the Application of T-Theory Market Analysis to Intra-day Charts of The Dow Jones Industrial Averages
It has been my experience over these many years that the Socratic method utilized in the inductive reasoning process produces far superior results in making stock market decisions. For this reason I am publishing my thoughts for review by my peers.
My involvement in securities markets began long before Technical Analysis entered the mainstream of security analysis so Ben Graham and 10-Q's guided my early years. I discovered the Over-the Counter options markets early on, well before the CBOE opened for business. I used a slide rule to calculate call option premiums and this was my first clue to the power of mathematics in security analysis. When I stumbled across the Black-Scholes formula, I was stumped and needed some help. I did suspect that in the land of the blind, the Black-Scholes formula would give sight to a trader among the blind. Over the years, I have studied both technical analysis and fundamental analysis with no real prejudice toward either. I found both paths of inductive reasoning to be essential in the pursuit of stock market profits.
4 comments:
Well done, DC! and thanks for the distribution on BGU :P .
You can see the irrationality of these derivatives by comparing the relative return of shorting the bullish ETF while simultaineously buying the bearish ETF. Obviously the bullish ETF was extremely overpriced in comparison to the bearish ETF. A lot of brokers are getting calls from compliance officers if these ETF's are in customer accounts and I believe there are certain risk disclosures that have to be given to customers. Also, beware the year end x-dividend date because of the capital gain distribution necesitated buy tax laws governing futures contracts at year end. Curiouser and curiouser! Just another zero sum game.
I believe the discrepancy is more just a outcome of compounding. If you set up an underlying with leveraged bear and bull funds based on it on an excel spreadsheet, and play with the numbers, you can see how it works.
Well, you did exactly as I didn't last week-- you took profits and ran. Congrats!
George,
You answered it well. I paid for your dividend! And you are most welcome. My capital could not have gone to a nicer guy. I was short on 11/20/09 that is the x-dividend date. Because the price of the stock is essentially reduced by the amount of the dividend and I bought it back on the x-dividend date, I am responsible for the dividend. My account was debited the $6.50 per share that your account was credited.
DC
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